04.09.24

The Conversation: 鈥楳eme stock鈥 investors are trying to catch up with a financial system which has left them behind 鈥 new research

Categories: Research, 海角乱伦 Business School
Double exposure trading growth graph with coins

Co-authored by Dr Richard Whittle, University Fellow at the 海角乱伦鈥檚 Business School, alongside University of Leeds' Dr Stuart Mills, for .

The US stock market  early in August 2024 as fears rose of an economic slowdown. Then a few days later calm was restored, reminding us how quickly things can change in the financial world.

And of all the market rises and falls, one type of stock has become . Known as 鈥渕eme stocks鈥, they are shares that gain viral popularity with large numbers of investors through social media.

This means that meme stocks often have a price which doesn鈥檛 reflect the true estimated value of the firm that has issued them. One of the most famous is GameStop, which  earlier this year, apparently in response to a single posting by an influencer known as Roaring Kitty.

At the heart of the meme-stock movement is an online investment community known as  (WSB) which uses Reddit to exchange ideas and information about investments. This community 鈥 made up of 鈥渟ocial retail traders鈥 rather than industry professionals 鈥 is driven by rumour and social media postings, rather than traditional financial information.

A 鈥渕eme-lord鈥 is an influencer within this community, like Ryan Cohen (now chairman and CEO of GameStop), who once posted a picture of a McDonald鈥檚 ice-cream cone with a frog emoji which led  that day.

In January 2021, WSB mobilised its members to invest enough to raise the price of GameStop from US$17.25 (拢13.17) to US$500 (拢381.85) per share. Wall Street hedge funds which had bet against price of the stock .

Indeed, this was apparently an explicit goal of the WSB community, which wanted to  the traditional financial system.

And the GameStop 鈥渟hort squeeze鈥 (when a share price rises sharply) was certainly successful in alarming the professional traders who had been caught out. But concerns were also raised by financial regulators who knew little about these new kids on the financial block, with the numbers and power to .

The CEO of the UK鈥檚 financial regulator  that the 鈥淕ameStop episode鈥 illustrated a phenomenon in which more people were seeing 鈥渋nvestment as entertainment鈥 and 鈥渂ehaving less rationally and more emotionally, egged on by anonymous and unaccountable social media influencers鈥.

He added: 鈥淭his is a category of consumer that we are not used to engaging with.鈥

So who are these social media investors? And what motivates them to do what they do?  suggests that many members of the meme stock investor community feel economically left behind.

By studying WSB forum posts, we found that the average investor in this community requires a return of at least 36% to feel satisfied with their investment. This is significantly greater than the typical stock market return of .

Left behind

Such great expectations reflect the community鈥檚 need for rapid capital accumulation. And our research also found that losses are felt very hard by social media investors, to such a degree that for WallStreetBetters, losing US$1 actually feels like losing US$4. This is  as losses felt by traditional professional traders.

Our work suggests that losses are particularly painful for for social retail investors because if they lose, they not only lose their invested money, but also their hope of making financial progress, or catching up with a global economy that they see as having left them behind.

These findings support an earlier theory put forward by a former (now expelled) WSB member, Jaime Rogozinski. In  WallStreetBets: How Boomers Made the World鈥檚 Biggest Casino for Millennials, he claims that the typical social retail investor see meme stocks as a kind of prayer for financial redemption 鈥 their one shot at getting to where they think they should be economically.

Rogozinski says that WSB investors often point to home ownership as being out of reach for their generation, yet the norm for their parents and grandparents, who then may have been able to invest money in slow and stable funds for their retirements. They  too.

So many of today鈥檚 meme stock investors feel they need to make a large amount of money 鈥 and fast. Investing US$1,000 in an ISA or a savings account, even if it does exceptionally well, is not going to cut it, and will not provide the life changing return required to get on the property market.

Those who feel so left behind may instead be tempted by a highly risky investment with a potentially large, rapid payoff 鈥 and meme-stocks provide that outlet. If that investment (which may of course end up as a big loss) can help hurt the traditional financial system that many social retail investors feel is against them, so much the better.

But our research also suggests that the behaviour of social retail traders is not simply about a revolt against finance, or irrational risky bets. It is about how today鈥檚 stock market reflects a new generation of investors, facing economic pressures which are quite different to those of previous generations. And these differences will be crucial to our understanding of market movements and investor behaviour in the future.

 

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