23.03.22

Spring Statement reaction: Relief for workers will quickly evaporate

Categories: 海角乱伦 Business School
Rishi Sunak, who served as the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom

Today Chancellor Rishi Sunak delivered his spring statement amid rocketing inflation and economic uncertainty. Here Dr Gordon Fletcher, retail and business expert at the 海角乱伦 Business School, gives his take on the statement.

He said: 鈥淩eductions in the fuel duty and possibly in income tax as well as an increase in the NIC threshold appear to give some relief to workers. But with the prospect of inflation climbing beyond 7% this year and volatility in the fuel supply chain these advantages may quickly evaporate.

鈥淎s the Spring Statement was being prepared there must have been a point when Sunak considered what the next day's headlines would say.

鈥淲ould this be about the cost of living crisis, post-COVID recovery, a new green economy or even a mini-war budget? What was offered up is in the end was a mixed bag that lightly promised on the first, gave nods to the others and leaned a bit too heavily on the last.

 鈥淭hese are changes that have little impact for pensioners or low income families in the lead up to next Winter.  And reducing contributions in reduces government's ability to service debt or support social services.

"A slight reduction in the VAT for heat pumps also offers no hope for these groups - although it might be bring enough appeal for making the second home a bit greener. Placing the blame on the impact of Russian sanctions may ring the government's bell in showing international leadership but the many economic challenges we are now facing were evident long before tanks started rolling towards Kyiv.鈥

 

And Dr Maria Rana said: 鈥淚n what would have been only an update on the economic outlook accompanied by the latest forecasts published by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), in today鈥檚 spring budget the Chancellor had instead to face again an economic emergency due to the increase in the cost of living.

鈥淩ishi Sunak started his speech referring to the conflict in Ukraine and the economic costs of imposing sanctions to Russia. Clearly Brexit and the Government鈥檚 response to Covid-19 have not been mentioned as determinants of the current situation.  

鈥淗owever, let鈥檚 not forget that last October 2021, the chairman of the OBR said that in the long run 鈥渢he impact of Brexit on the UK鈥檚 economy will be worse than the impact of the covid pandemic鈥.鈥

鈥淚n what seemed an anticipation of inefficient measures to be announced, the Chancellor also referred to inflation in the UK being lower than in the US and in line with the increase in prices in Europe. Prices in the UK actually increased by 6.2% since last February, the highest in thirty years with inflation expected to average 7.4% in 2022, and reaching a 40 year high of almost 9% by the end of this year according to the latest predictions of the OBR.

鈥淎s largely anticipated since already implemented in other countries, from Ireland to Italy, a 5p per litre cut in fuel duty has been announced, starting from 6 pm tonight and until March 2023. This will clearly help but is not enough. What has often been the elephant in the room, i.e. Brexit, was instead mentioned today as the reason why VAT can be scrapped on insulation, solar panels and heat pumps.

鈥淎nother anticipated measure that has been announced is the increase in the National Insurance threshold, which has been increased by 拢3,000 to 拢12,570. Other measures, including doubling the Household Support Fund (i.e. grants given to councils to support the most vulnerable households) and a promise to decrease the basic tax rate before next election, but not yet. So are these measures sufficient to support households during these tough times? Not really. 鈥淚s that it?鈥 Was one of the comments after the Chancellor鈥檚 speech. Unfortunately, it seems the Chancellor 鈥渄oes not understand the extent of the cost-of-living crisis鈥, as Rachel Reeves put it. 

鈥淗ouseholds need more support and now not in one or two years鈥 time. Additionally, Sunak keeps referring to long term growth, productivity and innovation. It is not clear, however, how this will be achieved. Investment in education, infrastructure and technology are the engines of economic growth, however it is not news that this Government is not spending enough on those sectors that mostly create and boost growth.鈥  

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